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Geopolitics

How A Drone Strike Inside Iran Exposes The Regime's Vulnerability — On All Fronts

It is still not clear what was the exact target of an attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory in central Iran. But it comes as Tehran authorities appear increasingly vulnerable to both its foreign and domestic enemies, with more attacks increasingly likely.

Screenshot of one of the Saturday drone attacks arms factory in Isfahan, central Iran

One of the Saturday drone attacks arms factory in Isfahan, central Iran

Screenshot
Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's the kind of incident that momentarily reveals the shadow wars that are part of the Middle East. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack by three armed drones Saturday night on an arms factory complex north of Isfahan in central Iran.

But the explosion was so strong that it set off a small earthquake. Iranian authorities have played down the damage, as we might expect, and claim to have shot down the drones.

Nevertheless, three armed drones reaching the center of Iran, buzzing right up to weapons factories, is anything but ordinary in light of recent events. Iran is at the crossroads of several crises: from the war in Ukraine where it's been supplying drones to Russia to its nuclear development arriving at the moment of truth; from regional wars of influence to the anti-government uprising of Iranian youth.

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That leaves us spoiled for choice when it comes to possible interpretations of this act of war against Iran, which likely is a precursor to plenty of others to follow.

Iranian authorities, in their comments, blame the United States and Israel for the aggression. These are the two usual suspects for Tehran, and it is not surprising that they are at the top of the list.


The U.S. press reports that Israel was responsible for this attack, the first against Iran since Benjamin Netanyahu's return to office with a far-right coalition. According to the The New York Times, it was the Mossad, Israel's secret service, that carried out the operation.

Nevertheless, a key question remains: what exactly was the target? Was it related to arms supplies to Russia? Or the Iranian nuclear program? Both scenarios are possible.

Did the drone strike nuclear weapons' operations?

The West has condemned the supply of Iranian drones to Russia, which is used to target Ukrainian infrastructure. At the end of December, The New York Timesreported that the Biden administration was considering limiting Iran's ability to assist the Russian war effort.

The Iranian nuclear program is another explosive possibility.

But Israel, sensitive to its relations with Russia, has no reason to take such risks for a conflict in which the Jewish state has refused to get involved.

The Iranian nuclear program is the other explosive possibility. European and American efforts to revive the nuclear deal that was broken during Donald Trump's administration have failed. For months now, there have been no real negotiations, and Iran's centrifuges have been running at full speed, bringing Iran closer every day to its ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Israel is vehemently opposed to this program as it is to other Iranian weapon programs, such as missile production, which it believes is a direct threat to its security.

Photo of protesters flying Iranian flags with some bearing the words "Freedom for Iran" as part of a protest against Iranian authorities in London on Jan. 28

Anti Iranian government protests in London on Jan. 28

Loredana Sangiuliano/SOPA Images/ZUMA

Tehran's domestic repression

Yet the disparate issues, ever more, blend into one. Iran is increasingly seen as a kind of besieged fortress, with a regime that has hardened ideologically as its legitimacy grows weaker.

The scale of the uprising led by Iranian women has seriously worried the leaders of the Islamic Republic: they have opted for repression, with hundreds of deaths that have reduced the number of demonstrations but not the popular discontent.

This internal hardening is also noticeable on the outside. And now, we see that the alternative is the risk of direct confrontation. The drones in Isfahan are arguably only a foretaste of what’s to come.


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Ideas

The Unifying Power Of Art In A World Divided By Religion And Morality

Political battle lines are becoming increasingly entrenched, and opposing views are being pushed towards ever greater extremes. Language has become a battlefield. If morality pushes us apart, and religion does not help in the process, we may find a solution in our sense of humanity, writes German psychiatrist Manfred Lütz in Die Welt.

The Unifying Power Of Art In A World Divided By Religion And Morality

Eugène Delacroix - La liberté guidant le peuple (1830). Commemorates the French Revolution of 1830, also known as the July Revolution.

Manfred Lütz

-Essay-

BERLIN — In the Middle Ages, people didn’t read texts about the meaning of life. Most of them couldn’t read at all, and they saw the meaning of life in the images in their churches. Academics have recently started speaking about the “iconic turn”, the return of images, and it is true that the Instagram generation prefers to communicate visually. Could pictures offer a way for our deeply divided society to come together once again?

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Both in terms of foreign and domestic policy, political views are becoming increasingly entrenched, and on both sides of the debate, opposing views are being pushed towards ever greater extremes. In the world of today, many people are cut off from any contact with those who think differently, living in echo chambers, surrounded by people who confirm their worldview. When those who disagree with their position condemn them from a moral perspective, this only serves to vitalize the group under attack.

The public pillorying that dominates social media can be a cause of great anxiety for individuals. But for those who feel they are part of a community, their fear often transforms into an aggressive form of self-defense. The topic itself isn’t as important as the sense of being attacked.

That is a possible psychological explanation for a strange phenomenon, whereby attacks on groups such as the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and some of their individual members have strengthened the sense of community within these groups and brought together a surprising mix of people, from radical free marketeers to nationalists, conspiracy theorists, pro-lifers, COVID deniers, right-wing extremists, conservative Christians and racists.

They are united by a single experience, that of being excluded. Conversations within these groups are reminiscent of chats around a pub table: the more harshly someone criticizes “those in power”, “the lefties”, “right-wingers” or even, “the others”, the more likes they get.

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